Russian President Vladimir Putin gave the order to invade Ukraine on Feb. 21. This move has received international backlash and resulted in the imposition of sanctions on Russia dropping the buying power of the ruple by nearly a third. As of Feb. 28, Ukrainian officials have met with Russian diplomats for the first round of peace talks. 

According to Dr. Rollin Tusalem, an associate professor of political science, since the Cold War’s end, Russia has lost its political influence on its former satellite states. Eastern Ukraine has a sizable Russian population. In addition, it has debated joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) for a few years. This has caused Russia to view them as a threat to its security. 

“This conflict is an affirmation of Russia’s desire to protect its internal security and promote an irredentist policy to a country they think belongs in their sphere of influence because of former and ongoing cultural and historical ties,” Tusalem said. 

NATO allies have imposed sanctions on Russia in an attempt to dissuade the country without resorting to actual combat. Many countries have strategies at their disposal to combat such threats, such as black-market trading options, under-the-table trade deals and offshore possibilities. Sanctions also have the possibility of creating a “rally ‘round the flag effect,” where the affected country and its allies become more supportive of the government and its leaders. 

The United States Treasury will target nearly 80% of all Russian banking assets, including its two largest financial institutions, Public Joint Stock Company Sberbank and VTB Bank Public Joint Stock Company. The sanctions also target members of Putin’s inner circle, including Sergei K. Shoigu, Anton Vaino and Yevgeny Prigozhin. The United Kingdom has banned export of all goods that have potential military use. Germany halted the certification of the pipeline Nord Stream 2, preventing Russian export of natural gas in an attempt to hurt the economy. Switzerland, usually known for its neutrality, has begun exacting sanctions as well. 

On Feb. 27 Putin placed his nuclear deterrence forces on high alert. NATO and the rest of the international community stated that this was an unprecedented action on Russia’s part. Some experts think this is Putin attempting to strategically saber-rattle, which is the display or threat of great military force. 

“Putin’s invocation of a nuclear high alert signals the end of the post-Cold War era and the beginning of a new cold war that legitimizes the purpose of NATO,” Tusalem said. “We are already seeing signs of this ranging from the extraordinary emergency meeting of the North Atlantic Council to Germany hiking defense spending by over 2% of its GDP.”

According to Tusalem, the United States will not get involved militarily and will only participate if NATO as a whole pursues military action. He said that NATO will only initiate conflict against Russia if they attack a member state. At the moment, Ukraine is not a member. 

Ukraine has held off invading Russian forces for about a week, receiving financial aid and weaponry from various Western countries. The United States has donated $350 million in military aid. Ukraine says at least 4,500 Russian soldiers have been killed and Russia has lost 150 tanks, 700 armored vehicles and 26 helicopters. Russia says they have hit more than 1,000 Ukrainian military targets. These reports have not been confirmed. 

“It is very difficult to predict the outcome of the conflict. But the longer the conflict ensues, which translates to higher military and civilian casualties on both sides, may have a direct effect on the morale of the public and public opinion. This may compel both sides to a negotiated truce,” Tusalem said.

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