Election Day is approaching and presidential candidates are campaigning tirelessly to rally votes and gain an advantage with their targeted demographics. However, the Democratic advantage of minority voters is shifting, with Latinos in the United States voting for the Republican Party. Why? 

In the NBC polling data for the 2016 election, Democrats held a 50-point advantage with Latino voters, but the gap narrowed to 36 points in the 2020 midterms. Now, Harris leads by just 14 points. Although Latino registered voters lean toward Kamala Harris by 54-57%, the rate of Latinos projected to vote for Donald Trump the second time around is 39-40%.

With the ongoing debates about the southern border and immigration policies, this election year may highlight the Latino vote’s impact on the polls.

Why is that the case?

The economy being a priority issue only reiterates the relationship of Latinos voting for the Republican Party. A 2022 Ipsos survey consistently found that Hispanic voters preferred Republicans over Democrats in handling inflation and the economy. The economy is a Republican-centered issue, with the GOP leading this policy initiative. A recent Washington Post-ABC poll found Hispanics prefer Trump’s performance and handling of the economy over Biden’s administration by 36-55%. 

Much of this conservative support comes from Latino men. This support of Latino men — particularly those without higher education degrees and under 50 — is a major factor in the shift. This could be due to the economic vulnerability of Latino men without higher education, who may be drawn to Republican promises of lowering taxes, job growth, opportunities and reduced regulations. 

But Latina voters have helped keep the Democratic Party ahead due to the Democrats’ promise of fulfilling policies on access to abortion, healthcare and overall bodily autonomy which aligns with concerns that impact Latina voters directly. 

Stepping away from these gender disparities with Latino voters, there’s a significant divide among Latino voters on immigration policies alone. Some prioritize a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants and for fighting discrimination, while others criticize the lack of border enforcement and want harsher restrictions. 

One often overlooked detail which I believe is the contributing factor for Latinos voting for the conservative party is the generational divide among Latino voters. When I say “generational” I do not mean just age, though it can play a factor. I’m referring to the distance connecting to one’s cultural background and heritage —  the lens of Latino ethnic identity. 

Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist, found the divide is most notable amongst U.S.-born Hispanic men, who tend to be less attached to their Latino heritage and identity — and are more likely to share the political priorities as white working-class voters.  

“What’s created this rightward shift, as we’re calling it, is a function of U.S.-born Hispanic males increasingly voting Republican,” Madrid said.

I found this to be true for myself. As a first-generation Mexican American, I’ve been closely connected to immigration issues, which have been central to political priorities. With the rise of anti-immigration rhetoric, especially during the 2016 election, I saw many Latinos oppose these harmful policies. Yet, many of those close to me are Latinos in the United States who cannot vote.

An estimated 36.2 million Hispanics are eligible to vote this year, with 17.5 million Latino voters expected to cast their ballots in the 2024 presidential election. While there are around 21 million immigrants of Hispanic origin in the U.S., according to the Center of Migration Studies of New York, a 2019 report from the Department of Homeland Security found that 13% of the 26 million Latinos in the U.S. are undocumented.

Latino voters fall into three groups: young, newly eligible first-generation voters who will participate in this upcoming presidential election, second to fourth-generation voters distanced from the top issues of undocumented Latinos and those who do not vote at all.

These cultural and generational differences shape who can represent not just Latino voices in the U.S., but also those who cannot vote — people seeking asylum, refugees fleeing deprivation in their home countries and those working towards citizenship.

This ever-growing relationship between Latino voters and political parties is beginning to reflect a broader transformation in not just American society, but American politics. As the Latino community continues to diversify and grow, how will political parties adapt to ensure they represent the interests of all their constituents? 

These political parties must recognize the changing dynamics within the Latino community as we see these shifting loyalties among them. This moment is critical for the Democratic Party, one that may change the political landscape for years to come. 

It’s crucial for these political parties to recognize the changing dynamics within the Latino community as we are seeing these shifting loyalties among them. This moment is critical for the Democratic Party, one that may change the political landscape for years to come.

Categories: Opinion

Tags: Article, election, Opinion, trump